The recent debate over traffic congestion in Tallinn has focused on the reconstruction of the Hipodroomi intersection. While this is undoubtedly an important traffic junction, it would be a mistake to assume that the problem is limited to a single intersection or construction project, writes Rõõt Laigu, mobility expert at the Logistics Institute of TTK University of Applied Sciences.
In reality, congestion reflects a much broader trend: Estonia’s largest cities are reaching a point where, during peak hours, an increasing number of people are trying to travel to the same destinations at the same time, primarily by private car.
Tallinn and Tartu are not cities that serve only their own residents. They are economic, educational and service centres for the whole of Estonia. Every working day, tens of thousands of people travel to these cities for work, study or to access services, and then return home. If private cars remain the primary mode of transport for these journeys, traffic volumes will inevitably grow faster than urban space can accommodate.
A master’s thesis completed at Tallinn University of Technology by Kaisa Maimann shows that the problem is not limited to traffic within cities but concerns the development of entire urban regions. Urban sprawl over recent decades has resulted in more people living outside city centres, which in turn has increased daily commuting to major centres and placed additional pressure on key transport corridors. As a result, morning and evening traffic flows converge on the same main corridors, while the capacity of the existing road network is approaching a critical limit in several locations. Maimann concludes that increasing car dependency negatively affects both the smooth flow of car traffic and the functioning of public transport, and that without intervention, these problems will become more severe. [1]
International experience shows that expanding roads alone does not solve the problem. Analyses by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Association of Public Transport (UITP) indicate that the growth of car-oriented mobility leads to greater congestion, higher societal costs and a poorer urban environment. [2] At the same time, high-quality public transport can move significantly more people using the same amount of street space than private cars.
Public transport is often viewed primarily as a regional policy measure – a way of ensuring that people living in rural areas have access to jobs and services. This is important, but it is only part of the picture. Public transport is equally important for the functioning of cities. Every person who arrives in a major city by train, bus or urban public transport represents one fewer car on the road, at an intersection and in a parking space.
The scale of the problem is illustrated by the findings of the Transport Administration’s 2021 mobility survey. The survey shows that the majority of daily trips in Estonia are still made by private car, with the car remaining the dominant mode of transport for travelling to work, school and services. At the same time, there are regional differences: public transport is used considerably more in larger cities and their surrounding areas than in sparsely populated regions, but even there, the car remains the primary mode of transport for many people. The survey also shows that people’s transport choices are influenced above all by speed, convenience and reliability. These findings confirm that even a moderate shift in transport choices can have a significant impact on the functioning of the entire transport system and help reduce peak-hour traffic volumes in larger cities. [3]
Transport studies show that people’s choice of travel mode depends not only on ticket prices or whether a particular transport option is available. The decision is influenced primarily by travel time, waiting time, accessibility, reliability and comfort. [4] If public transport is slow, infrequent or inconvenient, people will prefer the car even when a public transport connection is available. At the same time, studies show that high-quality and reliable public transport can significantly increase people’s willingness to reduce their everyday car use. [5] It is therefore not enough simply to maintain existing routes – public transport must also be a competitive alternative. Studies conducted in Estonia likewise emphasise that reliability, accessibility and convenience are particularly important from the user’s perspective. [6]
The choice of transport mode is not, however, purely a rational decision based on travel time or cost. Recent research shows that people’s attitudes, habits and perceived convenience also play an important role. A study conducted in Madrid found that car users value time savings, flexibility and independence more highly than public transport users. [5] This means that even when high-quality public transport is available, people may not automatically change their habits if they perceive the car as the more convenient option.
The same is confirmed by a 2023 review study, which found that people perceive waiting, transfers and walking to stops as significantly more unpleasant than time spent travelling in a vehicle. [4] In other words, the attractiveness of public transport is determined not only by speed but by the entire travel experience. If a stop is far away, transfers are inconvenient or timetables are poorly coordinated, even a relatively fast connection may feel inconvenient to the user.
A 2022 study conducted in Belgium found that many people perceive themselves as car-dependent even in areas where public transport is objectively well developed. [7] This suggests that car dependency is not only a question of the transport system but also one of behaviour and cultural attitudes. Therefore, the development of public transport must go hand in hand with solutions that make using it as easy, convenient and reliable as possible.
From the perspective of traffic flow, it is not only the number of cars on the road that matters, but also how close the transport network is to reaching its maximum capacity. Traffic engineers know that once a certain critical threshold is exceeded, a system can become congested very quickly. A traffic volume increase of just a few per cent can result in a disproportionately large increase in travel time for all road users.
The impact of public transport on the transport system is not limited to serving its existing passengers. Transport economics recognises a phenomenon known as the Mohring effect, whereby a larger number of public transport users makes it possible to provide more frequent services. More frequent services reduce passengers’ waiting times and make public transport even more attractive, which in turn brings in new users. This creates a positive cycle in which service quality and the number of users reinforce each other. The opposite is also true: when the number of users declines, service quality deteriorates and people are even more likely to choose the car. [8]
Maimann’s master’s thesis highlights another important relationship. As car dependency increases and public transport remains uncompetitive, buses begin to get stuck in the same congestion as private cars. This increases travel times, makes public transport less attractive and encourages even more people to choose the car. A vicious cycle emerges in which congestion reduces the competitiveness of public transport, while declining public transport use further increases congestion. The author argues that avoiding this cycle requires improving the attractiveness of public transport and giving it greater priority in the transport environment. [9]
Research confirms that public transport helps reduce congestion even for people who do not use it themselves. A study conducted in Rome found that reducing the availability of public transport significantly increased travel times for car traffic. This means that public transport does not serve only its users – it helps reduce congestion across the entire transport system. [10]
It is also important to understand that electric cars do not solve the congestion problem. Electric vehicles help reduce emissions, but they require just as much road space and parking space as conventional passenger cars. A traffic jam made up of clean cars is still a traffic jam. [11]
Transport choices also have a direct impact on people’s health and their living environment. The European Environment Agency points out that the transport sector remains an important source of air and noise pollution and creates a significant environmental and health burden. Increasing the share of more sustainable modes of transport, including public transport, helps reduce these impacts. [12]
It is important to recognise that people are not necessarily opposed to public transport. A mobility study conducted in Harju County in 2018 found that 44% of car users would consider reducing their car use if the public transport network were better adapted to their needs. [13] This shows that there is demand for better alternatives.
Well-organised public transport is not merely a social service but an important component of the economic competitiveness of regions and the functioning of cities.
Public transport development should therefore not be viewed as a cost but as an investment in Estonia’s future. Well-functioning rail and bus connections, high-quality urban transport and better integration between different modes of transport can help reduce congestion, improve the living environment and increase economic efficiency.
Ultimately, the question is not whether people should be allowed to drive. The question is whether Estonia’s largest cities will be able to function in the future if car dependency continues to grow at its current rate. If we want our larger cities to remain accessible, competitive and attractive places to live, public transport must be part of the solution.
The more people can choose convenient, fast and reliable public transport, the better the entire transport system will function – including for those who need to use a car. At the same time, it must be acknowledged that the goal of the transport system is not to reach a situation where nobody drives anymore. There will always be people and activities for which a private car is the most practical or the only viable means of transport. This is precisely why strong public transport is necessary – not to replace every car journey, but to ensure that those who can choose public transport actually do so. This leaves more space on the road network for those who genuinely need to use a car. When public transport is fast, convenient and reliable, many people will choose it voluntarily. Cities can then function more efficiently, congestion can be reduced, and cars can remain primarily in the hands of those who truly need them.
[1] Maimann, K. (2023). Tallinna linna piiriüleste ummikutundlike teelõikude liikuvusuuring. Tallinn University of Technology.
[2] OECD (2021). The Future of Public Transport Funding. / UITP (2024). Car Electrification and Urban Mobility.
[3] Transport Administration (2023). Eesti elanike liikuvuse küsitlusuuring – EELU 2021.
[4] Göransson, J., Andresson, H. (2023). Factors that make public transport systems attractive: a review of travel preferences and travel mode choices.
[5] de Oña, J., Estévez, E., & de Oña, R. (2021). Public transport users versus private vehicle users: Differences about quality of service, satisfaction and attitudes toward public transport in Madrid.
[6] Varendi, S. (2026). Saaremaa ühistranspordi liinivõrgu optimeerimine. Tallinn University of Technology.
[7] Van Eenoo, E., Fransen, K., Boussauw, K. (2022). Perceived car dependence and multimodality in urban areas in Flanders (Belgium).
[8] Basso, L. J. (2010). The Case for Subsidisation of Urban Public Transport and the Mohring Effect.
[9] Maimann, K. (2023). Tallinna linna piiriüleste ummikutundlike teelõikude liikuvusuuring. Tallinn University of Technology.
[10] Adler, M. W., Liberini, F., Russo, A., & van Ommeren, J. N. (2021). The congestion relief benefit of public transit: evidence from Rome. Journal of Economic Geography.
[11] UITP (2024). Car Electrification and Urban Mobility.
[12] European Environment Agency (EEA). Transport and Mobility.
[13] Transport Administration (2018). Tallinna lähipiirkonna Harjumaa (v.a Tallinna linn) ning Kohila ja Rapla valdade elanike liikumisviiside uuring.
* Article was published on June 22, 2026 in ERR.
